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Danger signals

Here are the danger scenarios that could affect the future of 13 sectors...

Son Güncelleme: 01.05.2013

Cem Boyner is worried about the future of his business. Because the Chinese are buying European retail brands. He believes that this will make it difficult for Turkish producers to sell their projects and find space on the shelves. It is not only in retailing, there are also danger signals coming from other sectors. In tourism new destinations may emerge as rivals to Turkey. The countries of North Africa, which today are seen as a market, could tomorrow be transformed into attractive centers for investment. In banking, technological developments may get rid of banking operations completely. Here are the danger scenarios that could affect the future of 13 sectors...

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Tourism is another sector in which people are talking about danger scenarios. The potential for new tourism destinations is the focal point of these scenarios. People are talking about the possibility of countries such as Libya, Algeria, Tunisia and Egypt resolving their democracy problems and then becoming very attractive destinations as a result of competitive advantages such as price.

Ozdogan Group Board Member Ali Ozdogan says: “The basic reason for this perception is that, following the overthrow of the dictatorial regimes that began with the Arab Spring, the Arab countries have a developable demographic structure and possess touristic resources which are very close to us. It is likely that these developments will affect us within the next ten years.” Özdoğan believes that the danger destinations are not restricted to these countries. Özdoğan says that. as a result of the impact of technological developments in reducing flight times to distant destinations, Asia and the Far East will become low cost exotic destinations.

Cornelia Diamond Golf Resort Spa General Manager Zafer Alkaya draws attention to the climate risks for the sector. Alkaya notes that the Mediterranean basin is in danger of rapid desertification and believes that, for this reason, water resources and sustainable management are very important.

The Turkish cement sector exports a significant proportion of its output. This performance has meant that it has become one of the three top exporters in the world... The most immediate threat to the Turkish cement sector, which has a capacity far in excess of domestic market consumption, are contractions over the next ten years in export markets and the resultant changes in the balances of supply and demand.

When we look at the countries to which Turkey exports it can be seen that these dangers are now already slowly becoming visible. Sabancı Holding Cement Group Chair Mehmet Göçmen says that the excess supply resulting from changes in the balance in supply and demand on the Syrian and Iraqi markets, to which a significant proportion of exports are transported by road, will result in these markets becoming self-sufficient. “In this way, Syria and Iraq will cease to be net importers,” says Göçmen. “It is a similar situation with Libya. African markets are taking protective measures against cement imports.”

Plastics are one of the areas in which Turkey is strong in the international arena. Turkey ranks eighth worldwide and third in Europe in terms of plastics processing capacities. But the sector is in danger of losing this position in the future.  
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