Updated scenarios

In 2014 Turkey has been affected externally by the FED and internally by an important political crisis. This environment has made it difficult for actors inside Turkey to take decisions.

18.05.2014 17:58:430
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Updated scenarios
Capital asked representatives of the real sector to give their forecasts for 2014 in the light of these developments. It was striking that each had a good scenario and a bad scenario.

But all of the representatives of the real sector were uncomfortable with the uncertainty and were looking for “urgent stability” in order to be able to make medium-term plans. Here are the sectors’ scenarios for 2014

Click images to see the tables.


It looks as if construction, which has been the motor of Turkey’s economic growth in recent years, will be the sector to be most affected by global and domestic developments in 2014, Dumankaya İnşaat Board Chair Uğur Dumankaya says:

“The FED’s decision to reduce its purchases of bonds, the fluctuations in interest rates, the political instability and, as a result of these, a continuing rise in foreign exchange resulting in an increase in construction costs are the leading factors that would play a role in a negative scenario for the sector.

The worst case scenario for the sector would be if all of these factors came together, which could result in a contraction of around 20 per cent in 2014.” But Dumankaya adds that, boosted by the urban renewal program, things could also be brighter.


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